As I mentioned before, the stocks trading is all about the market trends. It means that before do the stocks trading – either buy or sell the stocks –, the first thing to be checked is the current market trends. More precisely, we should check the current stocks market trends. We can do this stocks market analysis via stocks market index. Since doing my stocks trading in Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX/JKSE), I will do stocks market analysis by analyzing the IDX/JKSE index in this article.
In here, the used analyzing technique is universal so you can do it in any stocks market index around the world. OK, let’s back to our business. As I mentioned above, it is very important to analyze the current trends of the stocks market before decide to buy/sell the stocks. It is because the stocks market trends describe everything. It can be said that if the stocks market trend is down trend (bearish), the stocks trend is also down trend (bearish). In contrary, if the stocks market trend is up trend (bullish), the stocks trend is also up trend (bullish).
It is true that there may be an exception. There may be a condition that even though the current stocks market trend is in down trend (bearish), there is a stock in up trend (bullish). However it is very rare. Therefore stocks market analysis is still very important in here. So, it is better to stay out from the stocks market if the trend is in down trend (bearish) and only do the stocks trading when the trend is in up trend (bullish). That’s what I am trying to do in here. I will do stocks market analysis on IDX and then decide whether it is the right time to stay out from the market or not.
Please be noted that I use the Technical Analysis (TA) as my weapon to do stocks market analysis on IDX. In here, I use the IDX/JKSE weekly chart since it is the better time range to tell the current market trends. Also that, this weekly time range is a better option to use MACD as trend analysis tool. Before start, please take a look at the below weekly chart of IDX/JKSE:
This time, I will utilize the available Technical Analysis (TA) Indicator available to do stocks market analysis on IDX. First, let’s use the most simple way which is the index chart itself. As we can see, the IDX/JKSE index has formed the lower high as well as the lower low. It tells us that the current trend of IDX/JKSE is down trend (bearish). Second, we see the Moving Average (MA) indicator. As we can see, the MA 20 line and MA 50 line have been penetrated down. It tells us that the stocks market is in down trend (bearish) with MA 100 as support.
Third, let’s take a look into the Bollinger Band indicator. As we can see, the bottom Bollinger Band has been penetrated down. It tells us that the market’s down trend (bearish) will be happened in the long-term. Fourth, let’s utilize the MACD indicator. As we can see, MACD line (the blue line) is in below of the signal line (the red line). It tells us that the market is in down trend (bearish). Also that, the MACD gradient is negative which confirmed that the stocks market is really in down trend (bearish).
Fifth, let’s discuss the Stochastic indicator. As we can see, the Fast Line (%K) is in below of the Smoothed Line (%D). It tells us that the market is in down trend (bearish). So, in here, we have five Technical Analysis (TA) indicators which tell us that the IDX/JKSE is in down trend (bearish). Therefore, for now, it is better to stay out from the stocks market until the bullish reversal signal is appeared. That’s the only way now if still want to survive in stocks market — especially in IDX/JKSE. In short, the stocks market analysis tells us that JKSE/IDX in strong bearish currently.
Have a patience stocks trading everyone!