December 20, 2016 Morning Call – Global Stock Markets Preview

December 20, 2016 Morning Call – Global Stock Markets Preview

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 +0.20%) are up +0.20% and European stocks are up +0.30% on improved prospects for global growth after Japan’s Cabinet Office hiked its Japanese 2017 GDP forecast. Also, energy producing stocks are higher with the price of Feb WTI crude (CLG17 +0.53%) up +0.62%. Crude oil prices are higher on expectations that Wednesday’s EIA data will show U.S. crude stockpiles fell for a fifth week, trimming an inventory glut. Asian stocks settled mixed: Japan +0.53%, Hong Kong -0.47%, China -0.49%, Taiwan +0.03%, Australia +0.52%, Singapore -0.06%, South Korea +0.25%, India -0.25%. China’s Shanghai Composite fell to a 1-1/2-month low on concern over capital outflows with the yuan just above Friday’s 8-1/2 year low against the dollar. Japan’s Nikkei Stock Index rose to the highest in a year as exporter stocks rallied after the yen weakened when the BOJ said it will maintain its asset-purchase program.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.34%) is up +0.27%. EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.20%. USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.72% after the BOJ kept its yield-curve and asset-purchase programs unchanged, while Japan’s Cabinet Office cut its Japan CPI estimate for next year.

Mar 10-year T-note prices (ZNH17 -0.15%) are down -4 ticks.

The BOJ kept its rate on bank reserves at -0.1% and reiterated its pledge to keep the yield on the 10-year Japanese government bond at around 0% following today’s policy meeting.

Japan’s Cabinet Office raised its Japan 2017 GDP forecast to 1.5%, up from a Jul estimate of +1.2%, and said Japan 2017 CPI will climb 1.1%, down from a Jul estimate of 1.4%.

German Nov PPI rose +0.3% m/m and +0.1% y/y, stronger than expectations of +0.1% m/m and -0.2% y/y with the +0.1% y/y gain the first year-on-year increase in 3-1/3 years.
U.S. Stock Preview

Key U.S. news today includes: (1) no economic reports or Fed speakers scheduled.

Russell 1000 earnings reports today include: Carnival (consensus $0.58), Valspar (1.49), Darden Restaurants (0.64), General Mills (0.86), Factset (1.70), CarMax (0.70), FedEx (2.91), NIKE (0.43), Patheon (0.38).

U.S. IPO’s scheduled to price today: none.

Equity conferences this week: none.
Market Comments

Mar E-mini S&Ps (ESH17 +0.20%) this morning are up +4.50 points (+0.20%). Monday’s closes: S&P 500 +0.20%, Dow Jones +0.20%, Nasdaq +0.41%. The S&P 500 on Monday closed higher on reduced interest rate concerns after the 10-year T-note yield fell -5 bp and on an increase in German business confidence as the German Dec IFO business climate rose +0.6 to a 2-3/4 year high of 111.0. Stocks were undercut by heightened geopolitical tensions after the Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Ankara.

Mar 10-year T-notes (ZNH17 -0.15%) this morning are down -4 ticks. Monday’s closes: TYH7 +14.00, FVH7 +7.25. Mar 10-year T-notes on Monday closed higher on carry-over support from a rally in German bunds to a 2-1/2 week high after ECB Governing Council member Visco said the ECB stands ready to expand asset purchases if inflation fails to climb toward the ECB’s target. T-notes were also boosted by heightened geopolitical tensions after the Russian ambassador to Turkey was assassinated in Ankara and by reduced inflation expectations after the 10-year T-note breakeven inflation rate fell to a 3-week low.

The dollar index (DXY00 +0.34%) this morning is up +0.280 (+0.27%). EUR/USD (^EURUSD) is down -0.0021 (-0.20%). USD/JPY (^USDJPY) is up +0.84 (+0.72%). Monday’s closes: Dollar index +0.230 (+0.22%), EUR/USD -0.0049 (-0.47%), USD/JPY -0.84 (-0.71%). The dollar index on Monday closed higher on upbeat comments from Fed Chair Yellen who said job creation in the U.S. is continuing at a steady pace with layoffs low and indications that wage growth is picking up. There was also weakness in EUR/USD after ECB Governing Council member Visco said the ECB stands ready to expand asset purchases if inflation fails to climb toward the ECB’s target.

Feb WTI crude oil prices (CLG17 +0.53%) this morning are up +33 cents (+0.62%) and Feb gasoline (RBG17 +0.73%) is +0.0122 (+0.77%). Monday’s closes: Feb crude +0.19 (+0.26%), Feb gasoline +0.0063 (+0.40%). Feb crude oil and gasoline on Monday closed higher on the action by Libyan oil-facility guards to prevent two of Libya’s biggest oil fields from resuming production. Crude oil prices were also boosted by expectations for Wednesday’s EIA crude inventories to decline by -2.5 million bbl. Crude oil prices were undercut by the rally in the dollar and by news that Iran Oct crude production rose +7.3% m/m to 3.98 million bpd.

 

Overnight U.S. Stock Movers

Regeneron Pharmaceuticals (REGN -1.87%) was upgraded to ‘Outperfom’ from ‘Neutral’ at Credit Suisse with a target price of $485.

Alcoa (AA -0.37%) was upgraded to ‘Outperform’ from ‘Neutral’ at Macquarie Research with a 12-month target prce of $39.

Salesforce.com (CRM -0.50%) was rated a new ‘Buy’ at Drexel Hamilton LLC with a 12-month target price of $100.

Arch Coal (ARCH +1.05%) was rated a new ‘Buy’ at MKM Partners with a 12-month target price of $103.

Hubbell (HUBB -0.23%) was upgraded to ‘Overweight’ from ‘Equalweight’ at Morgan Stanley with a 12-month target price of $131.

Amgen (AMGN -1.09%) was downgraded to ‘Neutral’ from ‘Outperform’ at Credit Suisse with a target price of $180.

Teck Resources (TECK +0.59%) was rated a new ‘Buy’ at MKM Partners with a 12-month target price of $29.

Donegal Group (DGICA +4.45%) was downgraded to ‘Market Perform’ from ‘Outperform’ at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.

Sucampo Pharmaceuticals (SCMP +6.03%) sank 8% in after-hours trading after it said it plans to offer $225 million of convertible senior notes due 2021.

Worthington Industries (WOR +0.92%) dropped almost 3% in after-hours trading after it reported Q2 EPS of 72 cents, weaker than expectations of 84 cents.

Ionis Pharmaceuticals (IONS -0.26%) gained over 1% in after-hours trading after its subsidiary Akcea Therapeutics said a Phase 3 Compass study met its primary endpoint in patients with severe hypertriglyceridemia,

NeoPhotonics (NPTN -0.87%) plunged over 15% in after-hours trading after it lowered guidance on Q4 adjusted EPS to 3 cents-11 cents from a November 3 view of 13 cents-21 cents, citing delayed shipments and higher manufacturing costs.

Resolute Energy (REN +4.81%) fell over 5% in after-hours trading after it announced a public offering of 3.8 million shares of common stock.

Canatus Pharmaceuticals (CNAT +2.62%) exploded over 150% higher in after-hours trading after it entered into a license agreement with Novartis for the liver disease drug Emricasan.

Ref: Barchart

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